艾伯维

AbbVie reported 10.2% top-line growth and 22.9% adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second quarter. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance by $300 million to $67.6 billion but slightly lowered its adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $13.87-$14.07 due to the pending Apogee acquisition.

Why it matters: AbbVie's immunology portfolio continues to support strong double-digit growth, despite continuing competition from J&J's IL23 antibody Tremfya and new oral IL23 drug Icotyde, but expectations are high, with shares falling 2.5% on July 31. Skyrizi sales grew 24% as it continues to gain share in dermatology indications despite Icotyde's psoriasis launch, and Rinvoq grew 25% as alopecia and vitiligo approvals (recently in Europe and pending in the US) are likely to continue to support strong growth. Beyond immunology, AbbVie's neuroscience business had broad double-digit growth across migraine, Parkinson's disease, and antipsychotic therapies, helping to counter weaker performance in oncology (down 2%) and esthetics (flat).

The bottom line: We're maintaining our $200 fair value estimate for wide-moat AbbVie following another strong quarter. We continue to see shares as overvalued, although we're closely watching for data from early-stage pipeline programs that might warrant inclusion in our model. We’re particularly interested in Skyrizi combination data with novel pipeline drugs in gastrointestinal indications, and progress with oncology antibody-drug conjugates, including next-generation cMET ADC Temab-A that could be combined with PD-1/VEGF bispecific ABBV-1480. Conversely, we're also watching for data from competitors in immunology, including Icotyde data in psoriatic arthritis later this year.

For more information on AbbVie's portfolio and pipeline, please see our recent in-depth report, "Biopharma Product Pipelines Rise to Meet Steeper Patent Cliffs."

We're maintaining our fair value estimate at $200 per share.

While major annual Humira declines began in 2023 in the US, key valuation drivers to offset Humira sales declines are the company's next-generation immunology drugs targeting the IL-23 (Skyrizi) and JAK (Rinvoq) pathways. These new pathways seem to offer better efficacy and an improved side effect profile over Humira. We expect combined sales of these two drugs to reach $44 billion by 2030. We include $2.8 billion in sales by 2035 (nearly $5 billion if approved) for Apogee's long-acting IL13 antibody zumilokibart beginning in 2030 in atopic dermatitis.

Beyond a challenging 2025, we think aesthetic and therapeutic drug Botox should post steady mid-single-digit gains based on the drug's entrenched position and the complexity of creating a generic version. The company has several other newly approved and late-stage neuroscience and cancer drugs that should further help mitigate Humira sales declines.

Although the Allergan acquisition carried a significant premium to the stock price, we viewed the target as undervalued. We believe management was opportunistically taking advantage of Allergan's low price combined with the need to reduce AbbVie's dependence on Humira. Allergan's cash flows should also help mitigate the Humira pressures.

Overall, we forecast five-year average growth rates of 6% on the top line and 12% on the bottom line through 2030. We expect non-GAAP operating margins in the 40s as new immunology drugs carry strong enough margins to offset the lost sales on high-margin Humira.

Under our updated discount-rate framework, we've lowered our AbbVie WACC estimate to 7.0% from 7.2%. Our beta of 0.6 reflects our view of both biopharma's defensive nature and AbbVie's own fundamentals and market returns. The change does not reflect a new view of the business, but a more granular expression of our existing risk assessment.

We are maintaining AbbVie's wide moat rating as the company has successfully navigated the patent loss on Humira, which represented close to 50% of the firm's profits before biosimilars launched. AbbVie has diversified its product portfolio to include well-positioned next-generation immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Following the Allergan acquisition, AbbVie also holds a moaty aesthetics business (8% of 2025 sales) that should maintain strong pricing power based on branding power and complex manufacturing for skin treatment Botox and other products. Now that AbbVie's single-product concentration risk from Humira is in the past, strong traction with the current product portfolio helps support a wide moat for the firm. Also, an increasingly well-positioned pipeline increases our conviction in the durability of excess returns over the long term.

AbbVie derives enormous cash flows from its current product portfolio to fund ongoing discovery and development of the next generation of drugs. The company was able to quickly return to growth despite massive headwinds from biosimilar competition to key drug Humira, thanks to stellar launches for its next-generation immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq. With US patents poised to hold until 2033 for Skyrizi and 2037 for Rinvoq, we think AbbVie has time to invest profits in novel immunology pipeline candidates as well as new therapies in other areas with strong pricing power and potential for innovation, like oncology and neuroscience. We think AbbVie has relatively minimal exposure to upcoming patent losses, now that Humira's patent expiration has passed, with Vraylar (6% of 2025 sales, 2030 US patent) standing out as the biggest exposure.

We think the company does face environmental, social, and governance risks, particularly related to potential US drug price-related policy changes to increase access by lowering drug prices (75% of sales are generated in the US). That said, AbbVie's high exposure to immunology and aesthetics makes it less exposed to potential Medicare price changes. Ongoing product governance issues, including litigation related to side effects and patents, also weigh on the firm. While we have factored these threats into our analysis, we don't see them as material to our moat rating.

AbbVie's next-generation immunology drugs targeting the IL-23 (Skyrizi) and JAK (Rinvoq) pathways are mitigating biosimilar headwinds to older blockbuster Humira.

AbbVie's strong entrenchment in the aesthetics business (gained through the Allergan acquisition) sets up very long product cycles for several key assets like Botox based on strong brand power and physician entrenchment.

The pending Apogee acquisition could bring AbbVie an IL13 antibody that looks competitive with Sanofi and Regeneron's Dupixent in the $18 billion atopic dermatitis market.

AbbVie has had to depend on acquisitions to boost its late-stage pipeline, suggesting less successful internal research and development activities.

AbbVie's Cerevel acquisition saw a setback with the failure of two phase 2 studies for key schizophrenia drug candidate emraclidine.

AbbVie's aesthetics business makes the firm more vulnerable to swings in the economy than other biopharma firms, putting pressure on growth when consumer sentiment is low.