礼来

Lilly presented data from multiple clinical programs as part of October's annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes, including Phase 2 data for a combination of amylin agonist eloralintide and Lilly's blockbuster cardiometabolic drug tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound).

Why it matters: Eli Lilly and its rivals are advancing new treatments for obesity, weight management, and diabetes using various combinations, doses, and titration regimens to maximize efficacy and tolerability. Lilly needs to defend its leadership position to support long-term double-digit growth. We think the most important new data presented at the meeting was the phase 2b data for the eloralintide and tirzepatide combination, known as eloraTZP, in obese or overweight patients or those with type 2 diabetes. EloraTZP is moving to phase 3 later in 2026. Those on the highest dose achieved 23.3% weight loss and 2.9% reduction in A1C (blood glucose measure) at 48 weeks, which is the best result we've seen in type 2 diabetes (beyond Lilly's retatrutide) and exceeds the high-dose arm of tirzepatide alone (14.8% weight loss and 2.4% A1C reduction).

The bottom line: We're maintaining our $980 fair value estimate for wide-moat Eli Lilly. While our 2026 top- and bottom-line forecast is ahead of management guidance, we think investors are still assigning too much long-term value to Lilly's obesity drugs, and shares look overvalued. For eloraTZP, high discontinuation rates due to adverse events (27% for the high-dose combination) could be addressed by optimized dose escalation, and we're incrementally increasing our eloralintide forecast while lowering our forecast for Lilly's other high-efficacy program, retatrutide. Lilly's second half of 2026 faces more difficult financial comparisons, as Mounjaro's international launch ramped significantly in the second half of 2025. We see 39% sales growth for the year, with a split of 51% first-half growth and 29% second-half growth.

BLANK PAGEWe're closely watching the clinical development progress and evolving strategic priorities of Lilly's peers in the obesity arena, led by peer Novo Nordisk but including multiple firms vying to enter the market over the next few years including Amgen, Pfizer, and Roche.

Lilly's eloraTZP data at EASD and the potential launch of triple agonist retatrutide in late 2027 will likely help the firm hold a higher efficacy position than most or all near-term competitors in the obesity and diabetes markets (including Novo's cagrilintide and cagrisema and Roche's enicepatide/petrelintide), but longer-term positioning against regimens incorporating next-generation dual-acting amylin agonists, which could have better tolerability profiles, is unclear. For example, Novo's GLP-1/amylin zenagamtide is currently enrolling phase 3 (data 2028E), and its tolerability profile will be key to determining how it fits with eloraTZP, which based on this early data looks more effective. Novo is also testing a triple combination (NN9662) similar to eloraTZPthat could compete with it on efficacy, as well as a standalone oral amylin (amylin 355), in phase 2 (potential 2030 launch). Beyond Novo, Metsera and AbbVie have amylin agonists that have performed well in early studies and could prove competitive in the class, and AstraZeneca advanced lenbelintide (AZD6234) to phase 3 in August 2026 although we have not seen efficacy data yet.

On the duel between Lilly and Novo's oral medicines, we still assign Lilly's Foundayo higher 2032 sales (roughly $25 billion) relative to oral semaglutide (less than $20 billion) due to Foundayo's easier manufacturing as a small molecule and strong data in diabetes, although Wegovy pill holds strong US market share in obesity, as well as data to support better efficacy and tolerability than Foundayo in this setting. Novo's recent licensing of Hengrui's HRS-1596, a preclinical oral peptide with a similar mechanism of action as tirzepatide, shows potential for higher efficacy than Wegovy pill and once weekly dosing, and fits with the firm's continued emphasis on oral peptides rather than small molecules.

For more information on Eli Lilly's portfolio and pipeline, please see our recent in-depth report, “Biopharma Product Pipelines Rise to Meet Steeper Patent Cliffs.”

We are raising our fair value estimate to $980 per share from $900, after raising our long-term operating margin assumptions as well as adding a placeholder to our long-term revenue assumptions for early-stage pipeline programs.

We see peak sales for Mounjaro/Zepbound around $80 billion in the early 2030s, and Foundayo peak sales above $30 billion by the mid-2030s.

Mounjaro and Zepbound are supporting solid margin expansion for Lilly based on operating leverage. Our assumptions for overall biopharma GLP-1 sales in 2035 reach $200 billion across diabetes, obesity, and overweight patients, with Lilly capturing $120 billion of the market. We think more than 20% of obese and overweight adults in the US will receive treatment in 10 years, with the vast majority receiving branded incretin therapies. Beyond the direct-to-patient and government payer prices negotiated in the deal with the Trump administration in November 2025, we think US prices could continue to fall as volume increases (in line with payer contracts) and new entrants launch (beginning in 2028), with average net prices falling from roughly $6,000 annually in 2025 to roughly $3,000 in self-pay and government channels in 2026.

In aggregate, the company looks well positioned to drive top-line growth. We project a 37% top-line growth rate in 2026 and a 16% growth rate in 2027, with double-digit growth through the end of the decade. We expect diabetes and weight-loss drugs Mounjaro/ Zepbound and Foundayo will stand out as important drivers for cash flows. Alzheimer's drug Kisunla should also ramp to meaningful sales following the drug's recent launch. Lilly has already significantly expanded operating margins, and we expect them to approach 50% over the next several years (excluding acquisition charges). We assume a 6% EBI growth rate between our 10-year explicit forecast and the perpetuity stage of our model, which accounts for Lilly's solid innovation, offset somewhat by tirzepatide generic competition during this period (2036).

Our WACC estimate for Lilly stands at 7.9%. Our beta of 0.7 reflects our view of both biopharma's generally defensive nature, the cash-pay GLP-1 market's discretionary nature, as well as Lilly's own fundamentals and market returns.

Patents, economies of scale, and a powerful distribution network support Eli Lilly’s wide moat. Lilly's patent-protected drugs carry strong pricing power, which enables the firm to generate returns on invested capital well in excess of its cost of capital. Further, the patents give the company time to develop the next generation of drugs before generic competition arises.

Lilly’s diversified product portfolio has historically meant that the company’s top drugs represent only a moderate amount of total sales, although the success of GLP-1/GIP therapy Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide) in diabetes and obesity has led it to grow to 56% of total sales in 2025. Between this drug and newer diabetes and obesity therapies like oral GLP-1 Foundayo (approved in obesity in 2026), injectable, high-efficacy retatrutide (triple agonist in phase 3) and well-tolerated eloralintide (amylin agonist in phase 3), Lilly is building a cardiometabolic portfolio that will grow to three-quarters of total company sales by 2030.

Compared with peers, Lilly faces a fairly minimal patent loss headwind, with older GLP-1 therapy Trulicity going generic in 2027, followed by diabetes drug Jardiance in 2029. Tirzepatide has patent protection through at least 2036, which buys Lilly time to grow sales of the rest of its pipeline, both in cardiometabolic indications but also in its other focus areas like neurology, immunology, and oncology. Lilly's massive tirzepatide cash flows have allowed it to invest in both internal development of new drugs as well as several external acquisitions. Lilly's powerful distribution network sets up the company as a strong partner for smaller drug companies that lack Lilly's resources. We think Lilly is supporting its wide moat, seizing this opportunity to gain access to external innovation and some high-risk, high-reward opportunities in new areas like wakefulness, pain management, vaccines, and in vivo CAR-T cell therapy.

We think the firm does face environmental, social, and governance risks, particularly related to potential US drug price-related policy reform to increase access by lowering drug prices (close to 60% of total sales are generated by prescription drug sales in the US). Ongoing product governance issues, including litigation related to side effects and patents, also weigh on the company. While we have factored these threats into our analysis, we don't see them as material to our moat rating for Eli Lilly.

Lilly's strong leadership in weight-loss drugs should drive industry-leading growth, given its approved drugs and well-positioned next-generation weight-loss drugs in the pipeline.

Lilly is following its maturing cancer drug Verzenio with newer oncology therapies Inluriyo and Jaypirca, maintaining strong oncology growth potential.

Lilly has launched a new Alzheimer’s drug (Kisunla) that could become a major blockbuster, especially since few treatment options exist for the disease.

The risks to success for Kisunla remain high because of bottlenecks in patient diagnosis, required scans and monitoring, and competition, particularly from Eisai/Biogen (Leqembi) and Roche (pipeline drug trontinemab).

Several of the company's next-generation cardiometabolic drugs could lead to cannibalization of current approved Lilly drugs, particularly the widely used Mounjaro/Zepbound.

Competition to weight-loss drug Zepbound could significantly increase over the next three years from established competitor Novo Nordisk as well as new entrants.