特斯拉

Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, down slightly versus the third quarter of 2025.

Why it matters: Tesla shares were up 4% on Oct. 2 as the market reacted favorably to the numbers being ahead of company-compiled consensus estimates. The solid third-quarter numbers put Tesla on track for deliveries growth in 2026 after two straight years of declines. The decline of just 2% is also notable as it comes against the third quarter of 2025, which saw a pull-forward in demand due to the US electric vehicle tax credit expiration that occurred last September. Through the first nine months of the year, Tesla's deliveries are up nearly 10% versus the first nine months of 2025. In our view, the growth is being driven by full self-driving, which we view as a differentiator that drives consumers to choose Tesla over other autos.

The bottom line: We maintain our $450 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Tesla. At current prices, we view Tesla shares as slightly undervalued, trading around 20% below our fair value estimate, which puts Tesla on the border of 3-star and 4-star territory. We forecast around 10% deliveries growth in 2026 as Tesla's FSD drives higher deliveries and increased FSD adoption.

Coming up: Tesla will report earnings on Oct. 21. We hope to hear an update on Tesla's rollout plan for its robotaxi fleet, including the dedicated ride-hailing cybercab. We also hope to hear an update on when FSD version 15 will roll out, as this model will have greatly increased parameters, which should allow the software to drive Tesla's vehicles with far fewer interventions or the need for a human driver or remote operator to take control of the vehicle. Finally, we hope Tesla provides an update on the Optimus humanoid robot. We view autonomous driving and humanoids as the two long-term pillars for Tesla as the company transitions from autos and batteries as its primary products to autonomous driving software and humanoids.

For more information on our long-term autonomous ride-hailing outlook, see our report, "I, Robotaxi: AVs Will Be 50% of US and Canada Ride-Hails by 2035."

For more information on our long-term autonomous heavy truck outlook, see our report, "Roll on Big Robot: AVs Will Drive 40% of US Trucking Miles by 2040."

For more information on our long-term humanoids outlook, see our report, "Rise of the Machines: Humanoid Robots Are Coming."

We maintain our $450 fair value estimate following Tesla's second-quarter earnings. We use a weighted average cost of capital of just under 10%. Our equity valuation adds back nonrecourse debt.

In 2026, we forecast deliveries will grow roughly 10% to nearly 1.8 million versus 1.64 million in 2025. We see lower US deliveries in the first three quarters due to the US EV tax credit expiration in September 2025. However, with full self-driving beginning to be approved in a growing number of countries in Europe, we see strong European deliveries growth more than offsetting a US decline. As Tesla is ramping up production of its new, lower-priced Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, we expect automotive gross margins excluding credits will be in the high teens, slightly below management's long-term goal of 20%.

Longer term, we assume Tesla will deliver around 2.8 million vehicles per year in 2030, driven by the adoption of full self-driving software and the more affordable versions of the Model Y and Model 3.

We forecast that the vast majority of deliveries will come from the Model Y and Model 3 platforms. Tesla plans to discontinue the Model S and Model X. We see the Cybertruck, Roadster, and semitruck combining for roughly 30,000 deliveries per year.

We think Tesla will be successful in continuing to reduce its manufacturing costs on a per-vehicle basis. Including rising adoption of FSD subscription software, we forecast the segment gross margin will recover to the mid-20s by the end of the decade, above the 18% generated in 2024 but below the 29% achieved in 2022.

We expect Tesla's robotaxi business will continue to progress through testing and enter multiple new cities in 2026, similar to how Waymo, Uber, and Lyft increased their service locations. Tesla will initially take an asset-heavy approach, owning its own vehicles and running the software. Eventually, the company will allow Tesla owners to add their vehicles to its robotaxi fleet. The majority of our valuation comes from Tesla's AI software and robotics ventures. Our robotaxi valuation accounts for over 30% of our Tesla valuation. Our FSD software subscription valuation accounts nearly 20% of our fair value estimate. However, this excludes the effect of higher deliveries and expanded automotive gross profit margins from increased production. Our base case also adds the present value of Optimus humanoid robot sales and subscription software, which we value at nearly 30% of our fair value estimate.

We assume the successful growth of the insurance business and increased profits from the charging business result in long-term profit growth and margin expansion in the services and other segment. In energy generation and storage, we assume the business averages annual revenue growth of roughly 25% during our 10-year forecast, primarily driven by accelerating demand for energy storage systems.

We forecast companywide operating margin will return to the midteens by the end of the decade, in line with the 17% achieved in 2022 and well above the 8% generated in 2024. To fund this growth, we assume Tesla will spend over $350 billion in capital expenditures over the next decade.

Given the wide range of outcomes, we also model upside and downside scenarios. Our upside scenario fair value estimate is $800. This scenario assumes increased market share gains for Tesla's real-world AI subscription software products. Our downside scenario fair value estimate is $90 per share. This scenario assumes Tesla is unsuccessful in its goal to transition to a real-world artificial intelligence provider. We value the autonomous driving software business at just $10 per share and see slower growth in the insurance business. We assign no value to the company's robotaxi or humanoid robot ventures.

We award Tesla a narrow Morningstar Economic Moat Rating. Tesla's moat stems from two of our five moat sources: intangible assets and cost advantage. The company's strong brand cachet as a luxury automaker and its proprietary autonomous driving software command premium pricing, while its electric vehicle, or EV, manufacturing expertise allows the company to make its vehicles cheaper than competitors.

Intangible Assets

Tesla's intangible asset moat sources come from its brand and differentiated autonomous driving software technology. Tesla competes in the luxury auto space, as its vehicles sell for a premium price versus comparable vehicles in the midsize sedan and crossover SUV categories. In our view, consumers’ willingness to pay up for a Tesla is due to the technology, which drives the brand. The Tesla Model Y crossover SUV has been among the top-selling vehicles globally from 2023 to 2025, competing with the Toyota RAV4, despite the Model Y being priced 20%-25% higher than the RAV4. This pricing difference supports our view that Tesla has developed brand intangible assets.

Tesla has a more high-tech vehicle with the ability to do drivetrain updates and other updates via Wi-Fi or a cellular connection, and customers do not have to visit a store for many service needs. Tesla will instead pick up the vehicle from home and often return it the same day, while providing a fully loaded loaner for no charge, or visit the customer's home or work and service the car there. This experience is much easier than many other automakers' service, which helps Tesla's brand equity. Further, this has been accomplished with little spending on advertising, which is rare for a consumer brand.

Tesla’s strong brand equity has carried over to Tesla's energy generation and storage business, where the company can charge a premium for its fully integrated solar panel, inverter, and home battery storage systems sold to consumers.

Tesla's proprietary technology contributes to its intangible asset-driven competitive advantage. This form of intangible asset comes from its proprietary autonomous driving software, which is a differentiator for the company. To develop its software, Tesla invested in research and development, which was around 7% of sales in 2025. We expect R&D will average 6% of sales over the next five years. With R&D spending in line with its peers, we think Tesla will be able to maintain its proprietary technological advantage.

In our view, Tesla offers the best autonomous driving software available in a consumer vehicle. Our view is supported by third-party testing. In the US, Tesla’s full self-driving software ranked the highest of all advanced driver-assistance software in tests by MotorTrend in the US. In China, Tesla was the only vehicle whose autonomous driving software was able to safely complete five of six test scenarios, with the second-place competitor safely completing just three scenarios. We think Tesla is at least a couple of years ahead of its competitors for a top Level 2 driving system, though the company continues to improve its software. As such, we expect Tesla will maintain its differentiated software as the system improves to a Level 4 or Level 5 product over time.

This technology is a differentiator that drives consumers to choose a Tesla, supporting the automotive business’ ability to earn gross profit margins ahead of its auto peers. Tesla will face increasing competition in the coming years. Automakers will electrify their fleets and plan to offer more autonomous driving software. However, as new models are introduced, Tesla's technological advantage and the strength of its brand will remain intact, which will allow the company to continue to charge a premium price for its EVs.

Cost Advantage

We think Tesla benefits from a cost advantage in US electric vehicle production thanks to its manufacturing scale. Tesla's total vehicle volume has grown from just over 100,000 in 2017 to over 1.6 million deliveries in 2025. During the same period, the company's average cost of goods sold per vehicle has fallen nearly 60%, from $84,000 to roughly $35,000. While some of this is due to manufacturing a greater proportion of midsize cars and SUVs versus luxury autos, the majority of the COGS decline has come from the company's focus on reducing manufacturing costs due to scale. Legacy automakers are gradually transitioning to BEV production from internal combustion engines, but we expect they will be saddled with legacy internal combustion engine costs for a long time. We expect Tesla will continue to have lower costs than its US peers. So far, its US peers have not been able to profitably manufacture EVs. Even as EVs become profitable, we expect Tesla will retain its cost advantage, supporting higher gross profit margins versus its US automaker peers. Notably, we do not see a cost advantage for Tesla outside the US, as we think its Chinese EV peers, such as BYD, can manufacture vehicles at a similar or lower cost than Tesla. However, as Chinese EV brands are not sold in the US, we see a cost advantage in the US market.

In the robotaxi business, Tesla can offer a driverless ride-hailing service. This can allow Tesla to offer a trip price that is just 50%-75% of the price of a traditional human-driven ride-hailing service. We expect the absence of a human driver to make Tesla and its autonomous peers, such as Waymo, able to run their ride-hailing businesses at a lower cost versus peers.

All in all, we think Tesla's combination of intangible assets and cost advantage will persist in the future and allow the firm to generate excess returns on capital for at least the next 10 years.

Tesla has the potential to disrupt multiple industries with its technology for EVs, AVs, batteries, and humanoid robots.

Tesla's full self-driving software should generate growing profits in the coming years as the technology continues to improve, leading to a robotaxi service and increased adoption by Tesla drivers.

Tesla's humanoid robot will create shareholder value as its ability to perform multiple functions will transform manufacturing and be useful to consumers.

Traditional automakers and new entrants are investing heavily in EV development, which will result in declining deliveries. This will force Tesla to cut prices due to increased competition, eroding profit margins.

Tesla's large investment in autonomous driving software will be value-destructive as the robotaxi product will face delays and competition from Waymo, which already offers a robotaxi service.

CEO Musk's political activities will turn consumers away from buying a Tesla in key markets, including the US and Europe, leading to lower sales and profits.