沃尔玛

Walmart's fiscal 2027 second quarter included US comparable sales growth of 2.6% on traffic and ticket growth of 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. Adjusted operating income grew 10%, when excluding a 7% boost from tariff refunds. Shares sank 9% on Aug. 20 after the results.

Why it matters: While Walmart US' comparable sales experienced a deceleration (lowest since 2020), we believe the firm's expanding digital ecosystem, marketplace density, and commitment to low prices allow it to defend traffic, share of wallet, and profitability against competition. We don't believe the sales slowdown is entirely demand-driven. Although pharmacy pricing legislation (implemented January) acted as a 125-basis-point headwind in the quarter, core categories' comparable sales held around 3%-4%. We forecast Walmart US comparable sales to average 4.2% annually over the next decade. This trajectory is underpinned by its unmatched scale and low-price leadership, offering a vast product assortment that caters to financially stretched consumers across income cohorts.

The bottom line: We retain our $81 fair value estimate on wide-moat Walmart. We believe shares are overvalued even after the selloff. In our view, the market assumes high-margin advertising and memberships will permanently lift operating margins well above 6% historical peaks. We view this as unrealistic, as persistent mix headwinds from low-margin grocery and fierce industry competition stand to cap gains.

Key stats: Global advertising revenue grew 38% and membership income rose 17%. We see these high-margin revenue streams as providing dry powder to profitably defend traffic and maintain price gaps relative to conventional grocers. We forecast high-margin alternative revenue streams to reach nearly 41% of operating profit by fiscal 2036, up from over 25% in fiscal 2026. This mix shift offsets a declining profit contribution from core US merchandise, which we project will fall to just under 50% from roughly 62%.

We maintain our $81 per-share fair value estimate for Walmart following fiscal 2027 second-quarter results. While Walmart US comparable sales slowed to 2.6%, we view the deceleration as partly regulatory rather than indicative of a material deterioration in underlying demand, as pharmacy pricing changes weighed on reported growth while core-category sales remained resilient. Meanwhile, continued strength in advertising, membership, and e-commerce reinforces our view that higher-margin alternative revenue streams can support profit growth even as Walmart reinvests in price and contends with a grocery-heavy sales mix. We make no material changes to our long-term assumptions. Our valuation implies a fiscal 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of roughly 13.4 times.

Amid inflation and retail trade-down, its domestic operations remain the core driver of Walmart’s financial prospects, accounting for nearly 70% of revenue and operating income. We forecast US revenue to grow at a 4.5% CAGR supported by modest ticket gains and resilient traffic trends. Growth is underpinned by Walmart's dominant 31% share of US online grocery and expanding 20% digital sales mix, which continue to capture convenience-driven demand as e-commerce drives smaller, more frequent baskets akin to Amazon. Grocery, which accounts for about 60% of US sales, anchors recurring visits and supplier leverage while monetizing higher-margin categories like general merchandise, health, and private label.

Membership and advertising form the second value driver, reshaping Walmart’s earnings mix. We forecast membership income to grow at 8.5% annually, driven by 4% Sam’s Club member growth, a 10% midcycle price hike, and Walmart+ adoption across higher-income households. We project Walmart Connect to grow 15.5% annually, growing to a nearly 13% share of retail media advertising spending (from 8%) via real-time shopper data from 270 million weekly visits. At 70%-80% operating margins, these segments account for nearly 41% of operating profit by the end of our 10-year explicit forecast. This should buoy its consolidated operating margin and reduce its reliance on merchandise sales. However, it will not fully offset the decline in higher-margin discretionary items in the sales mix.

On a consolidated basis, we forecast 4.6% consolidated revenue growth and an operating margin rising from 4.3% in fiscal 2026 to 5.9% by fiscal 2036, driven by automation efficiencies and scaling high-margin revenue. We expect COGS as a share of revenue to decline 70 basis points as procurement and supply chain improvements take hold while selling, general, and administrative falls 90 basis points through fixed-cost leverage and productivity gains, reflecting genuine efficiency improvements rather than structural cost cuts.

We assign Walmart a wide Morningstar Economic Moat Rating grounded in its industry-leading cost structure and stout brand intangible assets, which we surmise will remain durable due to its unmatched scale, operational discipline, and continuous reinvestment in technology and infrastructure. Walmart’s consolidated return on invested capital has consistently exceeded our estimate of its weighted average cost of capital (7%) with a five-year average return of 14.7%. We believe that as Walmart continues to invest in strengthening its competitive position, its ROIC will remain above its WACC for at least the next two decades.

Walmart’s scale as the largest global retailer with over $700 billion in annual revenue enables meaningful purchasing leverage with suppliers, allowing the company to negotiate favorable terms that smaller competitors cannot match. Walmart’s massive sales volume also allows fixed costs such as supply chain logistics, IT infrastructure, and corporate overhead to be spread across a vast revenue base. Given the structural characteristics of mass-market retail (thin margins, perishable inventory, and high fixed costs), scale becomes critical to profitability.

Further, initiatives such as vendor-managed inventory, centralized purchasing, and cross-docking at distribution centers reduce inventory carrying costs and stockouts. Walmart US continues to invest heavily in automation through initiatives such as retrofitting all 42 of its US regional distribution centers with automation technology, implementing AI-driven replenishment task-management tools, and building next-generation fulfillment centers using robotics. These investments, while capital-intensive, aim to cut labor costs and improve inventory throughput over time. While utilizing this technology does not give Walmart an edge by itself, since other retailers can invest similarly, achieving this at such a large scale puts the firm on the cutting-edge of supply chain efficiency, reinforcing its competitive position.

Walmart’s long-standing everyday low price, or EDLP, strategy plays a dual role: it communicates price leadership to the consumer and simplifies operations by reducing promotional complexity. Walmart’s pricing strategy is a key factor in its 14% share of US grocery spending (including e-commerce grocery). EDLP encourages customer loyalty through a vast assortment of about 140,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs), ahead of Target (around 80,000 SKUs) and Dollar General (about 10,000). Because of its perceived price leadership, Walmart doesn’t need to undercut on every item. Walmart’s sales per square foot in the US ($696 in fiscal 2026) have consistently outpaced Target’s ($418) for the last two decades, while its operating profit per square foot of $33 in fiscal 2026 also trumps Kroger ($27) and Target ($19).

Supporting Walmart’s wide moat are its intangible assets, aiding in generating new revenue streams. Walmart benefits from a highly trusted consumer-facing brand that stands for value, reliability, and convenience. The firm’s private-label penetration (about 30% of sales through brands like Great Value and Equate) allows for higher margins despite lower prices relative to branded fare, while unlocking more first-party data and analytics. Walmart’s digital ecosystem, which is built around Walmart+, its mobile app, and proprietary shopper data, have created intangible assets in the form of behavioral data, shopping patterns, and geographic analytics. This brand equity and consumer trust serve as a subtle but meaningful barrier to entry.

Walmart’s scale, customer data, and closed-loop measurement capabilities enable it to offer targeted digital advertising with clear attribution, which is attractive to consumer product manufacturers and direct-to-consumer brands to help track the return on ad spending. The more advertisers participate, the more refined the targeting becomes, thus increasing returns for advertisers and drawing in a greater share of retail media ad spending. Walmart Connect provides advanced closed-loop tracking that only a few retailers outside of Amazon (which serves as the gold standard for ad revenue, at $69 billion in 2025) can match. Walmart’s ability to monetize proprietary data and physical/digital shelf space through advertising is a clear example of a moat-enhancing intangible asset derived from Walmart’s scale, foot traffic, and digital integration.

Walmart+ has carved out a meaningful niche with an estimated 54 million-plus paid members, according to eMarketer (boasting a five-year CAGR of 27%), contributing around $1.9 billion in revenue in membership fees as of fiscal 2026. We posit Walmart+ supports the broader ecosystem by incentivizing higher spending and deeper engagement with the Walmart platform, boosting stickiness, and creating long-term customer value.

Sam’s Club possesses elements of a cost advantage while also contributing to Walmart’s overall intangible asset strength. Its membership model provides recurring, high-margin revenue (80%-90% of which flows to the bottom line), while scan-and-go, self-checkout, and digital enhancements improve the customer experience. However, unlike Costco, it lacks the same brand loyalty and global scale, reflected in its lagging market share of the US warehouse club industry at just 30% share against Costco’s 64%.

In contrast to its dominant standing on its home turf, we surmise Walmart international lacks moatworthy characteristics in most of its markets. Fragmented retail environments, supply chain challenges, and inconsistent regulatory regimes require a diverse set of expertise, which challenges its ability to maintain long-term pricing power. While markets like Mexico (Walmex) and India (Flipkart) hold strategic value, these markets aren’t significant on a consolidated basis. Previous exits from the UK, Argentina, and Brazil illustrate that management is focused on only maintaining operations where it can achieve scale.

Walmart Connect is profitably compounding sales at a high-double-digit rate, with 70% operating margins, creating a durable profit stream as it captures retail media advertising spending using real-time data from 270 million weekly shoppers.

Expansion of private-label penetration boosts margins while reinforcing Walmart’s value message and defending its share.

Walmart+ adoption drives nearly twice as much shopping frequency per member, reinforcing share gains with fuel, delivery, and media perks appealing to higher-income households.

Digitally native rivals like Amazon, Shein, and Temu could erode wallet share in discretionary categories, which make up 25% of Walmart’s sales and carry higher margins than grocery.

Rising employee wages (up 30% in five years) and raw material inflation could outpace productivity gains, constraining margin improvement.

International operations may fail to scale and realize the same level of brand resonance in the US, with past failures in the UK, Germany, and Argentina, which would depress returns on invested capital.