Elbit Systems

Elbit Systems Ltd earns a 2-star quantitative star rating, illustrating our stance that this share class is a somewhat unattractive choice, and investors should look elsewhere for more fruitful opportunities. The stock currently trades at a 6% premium over our quantitative fair value estimate of $646.25 per share; however, this estimate should be taken with a pinch of salt due to its medium uncertainty rating. We require the price/fair value ratio to move a certain amount before the star rating can change. This stability-enhancing buffer is in effect for this stock.

The firm's valuation metrics decrease our fair value estimate. A company's valuation metrics provide insights into the market's expectations for its future growth and profitability. For example, the firm's enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 37.1 sits in the top 20% globally. This suggests that the value of its enterprise value, or the value of its shares and debt, is a high multiple of the generated EBITDA. We believe this is a sign that shares could be overvalued.

The firm's lack of profitability is an additional cause for concern. Companies with low profitability are often less resilient in recessions and are likely to generate weaker future cash flows for shareholders. The firm's sales yield of 24.3%, a core component of profitability, falls in the bottom 30% compared with global peers. This company's inability to generate significant sales growth without meaningful capital investment is a challenge, which further promotes our unfavorable price/fair value ratio.

In addition to the aforementioned drivers, our model considers momentum as part of its comprehensive analysis. This share class has outperformed the broader universe over the past year. This outperformance may signify a bull trap, in light of other detractors from our model.

The company's wide quantitative moat rating indicates it could outearn its cost of capital and maintain robust margins for 20 years or longer. In addition, the company's moderate financial health score is decent and doesn't seriously concern us with regard to financial distress.