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The strategy

StockVane Momentum — track record

One daily buy / hold / sell call on every US stock we cover, and what following the whole set would have done against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

Updated 7 minutes ago
StockVane Momentum · 4.8-year backtest +373% total return — vs S&P 500 +74%, Nasdaq-100 +91%
x0.5x2.0x3.5x5.0x6.5Jan 2022Oct 2026
StockVane Momentum S&P 500 (total return) Nasdaq-100 (total return)

Growth of $1, full history. The blue line is the strategy (following every daily A/B/C/D/E call across all names); the grey and gold lines are buy-and-hold of the two indexes, dividends included. The record here starts on 3 Jan 2022, the model’s first real trade — 2021 doesn’t appear because the momentum ranking needs a full year of price history to work, so the model held 100% cash and wasn’t actually trading (see “Read this honestly” below). Use the buttons above to zoom into a shorter window (shown as % return from the start of that window) or switch to a daily/weekly candlestick view of the strategy’s own net asset value — since only one NAV point is recorded per day, a daily candle’s open is simply the prior day’s close (no intraday range); the weekly candle’s high/low are the real max/min of the five daily closes in that week.

Total return+373%S&P +74% · Nasdaq +91%
Annualised38.2%S&P 12.2% · Nasdaq 14.4%
Worst drawdown-24%S&P -22% · Nasdaq -31%
Volatility25%annualised
Win rate50.7%446 closed trades
Profit/loss ratio1.99avg win ÷ avg loss
Sharpe ratio1.47vs 2% cash yield

Year by year

“vs S&P” is the strategy’s return that year minus the S&P 500’s (simple percentage-point gap, i.e. alpha). “Max drawdown” is the worst peak-to-trough decline in the strategy’s own NAV within that calendar year. “Avg. cash” is how much of the portfolio sat in cash on the average day that year (fully in cash whenever the S&P 500 is below its own 200-day average).

YearStockVane MomentumS&P 500Nasdaq-100vs S&PMax drawdownAvg. cash
2022 +21.6% -16.6% -29.4% +38.3% -8% 81%
2023 +48.9% +26.2% +54.9% +22.7% -11% 21%
2024 +91.1% +26.1% +27.4% +65.0% -16% 28%
2025 +15.3% +16.8% +18.8% -1.5% -18% 44%
2026 +18.5% +12.1% +15.3% +6.4% -24% 41%

Today's model portfolio

The current model portfolio (which 12 names, what weight) is part of StockVane Premium.

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Recent signal changes

Buy/sell price is the close on that trade’s own date. A closed position (bought, then later sold) shows its realized return. A BUY with no sell yet is still open — its return is unrealized, marked with † and marked-to-market against the latest available close.

The stock and buy price for the 5 most recent rows are for Premium members; the next 5 need a free account.

DateActionStockBuy priceSell / current priceReturnWhy
23 Oct 2026 SELL 🔒 Premium 🔒 $110.78 +2.2% left model portfolio
23 Oct 2026 SELL 🔒 Premium 🔒 $76.17 -3.9% left model portfolio
23 Oct 2026 BUY 🔒 Premium 🔒 $228.51 (now) +0.0% † entered model portfolio
23 Oct 2026 BUY 🔒 Premium 🔒 $83.39 (now) +0.0% † entered model portfolio
22 Oct 2026 SELL 🔒 Premium 🔒 $55.46 -23.7% left model portfolio
22 Oct 2026 SELL $16.86 -8.3% left model portfolio
22 Oct 2026 BUY – – entered model portfolio
22 Oct 2026 BUY – – entered model portfolio
22 Oct 2026 BUY $18.03 (now) +3.3% † entered model portfolio
16 Oct 2026 SELL $639.01 +27.1% lost 200-day average
15 Oct 2026 SELL FORM $137.13 $113.34 -17.3% left model portfolio
15 Oct 2026 BUY VSXY $90.53 $90.82 (now) +0.3% † entered model portfolio
15 Oct 2026 BUY PACS $47.75 $47.64 (now) -0.2% † entered model portfolio
15 Oct 2026 SELL VICR $216.39 $219.92 +1.6% lost 200-day average
8 Oct 2026 SELL DOCN $131.05 $123.90 -5.5% left model portfolio
8 Oct 2026 BUY FORM $137.13 – – entered model portfolio
8 Oct 2026 BUY ECO $94.44 $94.73 (now) +0.3% † entered model portfolio
8 Oct 2026 SELL WDC $343.23 $393.31 +14.6% lost 200-day average
1 Oct 2026 BUY IMOS $72.68 – – entered model portfolio
1 Oct 2026 SELL ANAB $51.70 $48.63 -5.9% lost 200-day average
24 Sep 2026 SELL UMC $24.47 $24.10 -1.5% left model portfolio
24 Sep 2026 SELL PACS $43.09 $41.46 -3.8% left model portfolio
24 Sep 2026 BUY ANAB $51.70 – – entered model portfolio
24 Sep 2026 BUY ASX $43.50 $38.69 (now) -11.1% † entered model portfolio
17 Sep 2026 BUY UMC $24.47 – – entered model portfolio
17 Sep 2026 BUY VICR $216.39 – – entered model portfolio
14 Sep 2026 SELL ALM $18.24 $14.70 -19.4% lost 200-day average
14 Sep 2026 SELL FORM $112.12 $102.94 -8.2% lost 200-day average
10 Sep 2026 SELL IMOS $56.15 $55.99 -0.3% left model portfolio
10 Sep 2026 SELL VSXY $90.79 $73.39 -19.2% left model portfolio

How it works

  • Every trading day, each of the 3,753 US stocks this strategy trades is ranked by its trailing 12-month price return and checked against its own 200-day average. (This is the quant model's own trading universe, not the full count of stocks StockVane has quote pages for.)
  • Per stock you get one call: A Strong Buy, B Buy, C Hold, D Sell, E Strong Sell.
  • The model portfolio holds the ~12 strongest “A” names, inverse-volatility weighted, scaled to an ~18% volatility target, and moves fully to cash whenever the S&P 500 is below its own 40-week (200-day) average.
  • Reconstituted weekly; a holding is dropped straight away if it loses its 200-day average.
  • Full rules: Data & Methodology.

Read this honestly. The 4.8-year record above is a backtest (the live, unedited record starts now). It starts on 3 Jan 2022 rather than at the strategy’s earliest available price history: the 12-month momentum ranking needs a full year of daily prices to warm up, so for the year before that the model held 100% cash and made no trades at all. That warm-up year is left out here rather than shown as a "return" next to the S&P/Nasdaq, since the model wasn’t actually invested during it. It is run only on the 3,753 US stocks the strategy trades today — a list chosen with hindsight, so a real-money result going forward is very likely to be weaker than the backtest. Returns assume weekly rebalancing, 0.1% per trade, no slippage and no taxes. Prices are split- and dividend-adjusted; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 lines are total return.

Past performance does not predict future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The strategy rules may change. This is generic, impersonal information published the same way to every visitor — it is not tailored to your financial situation, goals, or risk tolerance, and StockVane is not your investment adviser or broker.