Midland States

Midland States Bancorp Inc earns a 3-star quantitative star rating, indicating our belief that this share class is a balanced choice, but prudent investors should consider looking elsewhere. The stock currently trades at a minor 1% premium over our quantitative fair value estimate of $31.91 per share; however, this estimate should be taken with a pinch of salt due to its high uncertainty rating.

The company's lack of growth undermines our fair value estimate. Stagnant revenue and earnings growth indicates a company's challenges in increasing market share and profitability. Reflecting the firm's growth is its EPS 5-year growth of -5.0%, which sits in the bottom 20% compared with peers globally. On a relative basis, EPS growth has lagged over the last five years, which contributes to our view that shares are expensive.

Alternatively, the firm's valuation metrics are reassuring. A company's valuation metrics provide insights into the market's expectations for its future growth and profitability. The firm's book value yield of 66.8%, a core component of valuation, ranks in the top 45% compared with peers globally. The market price is low relative to the book (accounting) value of the company's equity, which, despite our unfavorable price/fair value ratio, is a positive attribute.

In addition to the aforementioned drivers, our model considers momentum as part of its comprehensive analysis. This share class has outperformed the broader universe over the past year. This outperformance may signify a bull trap, in light of other detractors from our model.

This company lacks a competitive advantage, receiving a quantitative economic moat rating of none. Additionally, the firm's moderate financial health score suggests it is acceptably positioned against adverse economic circumstances.