ONE Gas

ONE Gas Inc receives a 5-star quantitative star rating, reflecting our opinion that this share class offers a compelling opportunity for investors. The stock currently trades at a 11% discount to our quantitative fair value estimate of $81.98 per share, which is reinforced by this estimate's low uncertainty rating.

The firm's valuation metrics strengthen our fair value estimate. A company's valuation metrics provide insights into the market's expectations for its future growth and profitability. Reflecting the firm's valuation is its book value yield of 77.6%, which sits in the top 40% compared with peers globally. The market price is low relative to the book (accounting) value of the company's equity, which contributes to our view that shares are cheap.

Conversely, the company's lack of profitability is potentially concerning. Companies with low profitability are often less resilient in recessions and are likely to generate weaker future cash flows for shareholders. The firm's enterprise value to free cash flow ratio of 198.9, for example, falls in the top 10% compared with peers globally. This suggests limited cash flow is available for reinvestment or return to shareholders, which, despite our favorable price/fair value ratio, is a negative attribute.

In addition to the aforementioned drivers, our model considers momentum as part of its comprehensive analysis. This share class has outperformed the broader universe over the past year. While we believe the stock is undervalued, this outperformance had a negative impact on our valuation estimate.

With its quantitative economic moat rating of none, this business is unlikely to consistently outearn its cost of capital without structural protection from competition. Additionally, the firm's moderate financial health score suggests it is acceptably positioned against adverse economic circumstances.