Appfolio

AppFolio Inc earns a 3-star quantitative star rating, illustrating our stance that this share class is a balanced choice, but prudent investors should consider looking elsewhere. The stock currently trades at a minor 2% discount to our quantitative fair value estimate of $208.84 per share; however, some caution is warranted due to this estimate's medium uncertainty rating.

The company's solid growth strengthens our estimated fair value. Consistent revenue and earnings growth indicates a company's potential for increased market share and profitability. For example, the firm's revenue 3-year growth of 24.3% ranks in the top 20% compared with peers globally. Robust trailing three-year revenue growth portends a favorable future trajectory, which contributes to our view that shares are cheap.

Alternatively, the company's valuation metrics are potentially concerning. A company's valuation metrics provide insights into the market's expectations for its future growth and profitability. The firm's enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 25.0, for example, ranks in the top 30% compared with peers globally. This suggests that the value of its enterprise value, or the value of its shares and debt, is a high multiple of the generated EBITDA. Despite our favorable price/fair value ratio, this characteristic is a negative attribute.

In addition to the aforementioned drivers, our model considers momentum as part of its comprehensive analysis. This share class has been a laggard relative to the broader universe over the past year. This underperformance makes the stock appear cheap, which portends a buying opportunity in light of other contributors to our model.

The narrow moat rating for this company indicates investors can expect it to generate 10 years or more of excess returns on capital due to its respectable competitive advantages. In addition, the company's moderate financial health score is decent and doesn't seriously concern us with regard to financial distress.