Ritchie Bros Auctioneers

RB Global posted 11% growth in revenue to USD 1.3 billion in its second quarter, but services only grew 5% to USD 933 million. Adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share each grew 6%, to USD 387 million and USD 1.13, respectively.

Why it matters: The company increased its 2026 guidance for gross transaction value growth to 9%-11% from 6%-9%. However, adjusted EBITDA guidance barely moved, as lower-margin inventory sales made up a bigger proportion of the mix. The automotive segment saw healthy 13% growth in GTV. Management called out higher average prices per vehicle sold, market share gains, and improved presence with its top insurance company customer. However, the lower services take rate is somewhat disappointing. Performance was murkier in the newly relabeled heavy equipment and transportation segment. GTV increased 8%, but management indicated this was mostly due to acquisitions, and transaction volume declined due to “a more cautious customer environment.”

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate for narrow-moat RB Global to USD 104/CAD 142 per share from USD 103/CAD 140 on the updated guidance and a moderately more conservative view on service take rates in our forecast. The GTV dynamics in automotive are positive and relatively straightforward, but the situation in HE&T strikes us as odd, given strong performance at construction equipment manufacturers and equipment rental companies, where we would have expected volume sold in auction channels to be better.

Our USD 104 per-share fair value estimate equates to a price/earnings multiple of 24 times our 2026 earnings estimate.

We expect RB Global's gross transaction value to grow at an average rate of 7% beyond 2025. This reflects high-single-digit growth in the automotive segment and low-single-digit growth in HE&T, which strikes us as consistent with historical performance without temporary cyclical swings. We give the company credit for a consistently improving revenue take rate, gradually expanding to 23% for midcycle from 21%, and gross margin expanding to 63% from 58%. This gross margin figure represents the cost of RB Global’s transaction services. The company also sells inventory, where it takes ownership of equipment/vehicles on the balance sheet and earns a modest spread selling it through its various channels. Gross profit on inventory sales is more equivalent to service revenue for the company. Incorporating all these drivers, operating margins expand from almost 18% in 2024 to nearly 23% at the end of our forecast horizon. We believe these assumptions contemplate further improvement in execution and successfully adding on further ancillary services to drive the take rate higher. Overall, we believe the primary driver of performance is the automotive segment recapturing share and closing its performance gap with Copart, while the HE&T operations continue to drive incremental improvement. We acknowledge there is scope for cyclical recovery in HE&T, but believe our GTV growth rates contemplate this.

Our stage two forecast period incorporates an estimated investment rate of 33.3% and an earnings before interest growth rate of 5% with perpetual growth of 3%. An 8.4% weighted average cost of capital derives from a market average cost of equity and the firm’s current capital structure.

We assign RB Global a narrow Morningstar Economic Moat Rating, as it benefits from network effects and intangible assets. We believe this applies equally to both the heavy equipment and transportation (legacy Ritchie Bros.) and automotive (legacy IAA) segments.

Network effects mean that the good or service becomes more valuable for both new and existing users as more customers use it, creating a beneficial cycle. For legacy Ritchie Bros., this value comes from auction liquidity, which refers to the number of users engaged in its auctions and their level of participation. For decades, the company has been adept at attracting both buyers and sellers to its auctions/marketplaces and has steadily increased user activity (bidder registrations, lots sold, bids per lot). Together, these factors have led to legacy Ritchie Bros. becoming the market leader in auction liquidity in its construction equipment categories. By all measures, the value of the company’s services has increased as more customers have either bought or sold equipment on its marketplace: sellers receive higher bids, and buyers have access to more products. Furthermore, the company adds services such as logistics, inspections, refurbishment, and appraisals. All these ancillary services increase the take rate, which is a measurement of revenue received (commissions, fees, and so forth) per dollar of gross transaction value when a commercial asset/vehicle is sold through their network. The company’s take rate has consistently increased over time.

Legacy Ritchie Bros. holds about 20% market share in a highly fragmented business with no other significant listed competitors. It has been actively expanding its online capabilities and equipment categories (agriculture, forestry, oil and gas, and so forth). Similarly, the IAA business operates in a duopoly with Copart, each controlling approximately 40% of the market (not adjusted for potential recent disruptions). Increasing the scale of the network and offering additional ancillary services have created a compelling value proposition for insurance company suppliers and driven greater volumes to the market leaders. IAA and Copart provide insurance companies with a preferred outsourced solution for dealing with insured assets that are damaged because of collisions or catastrophes. This is understandably not a core competency and justifies the enduring market opportunity for IAA and Copart.

Both segments within RB Global seem to have intangible assets in the form of customer relationships and, to a lesser extent, intellectual property via the technology platforms they have developed to enhance their omnichannel marketplaces. Ritchie Bros. has built up thousands of customers over the years (especially among construction equipment dealers) who value and trust their ability to monetize assets effectively. Similarly, we believe the auto salvage marketplaces have cultivated critical relationships with the insurance companies, which reduce costs by outsourcing these functions to IAA and Copart. Both firms have acquired companies over time to augment these capabilities and justify the moat.

RB could gain share based on the quality of its network and service offerings, especially in automotive.

The company could increase ancillary services, expand take rates, and enhance returns.

RB could expand significantly abroad where auction markets are more underpenetrated.

RB has no pricing power due to supplier power/concentration, and returns could deteriorate.

Competitors could capture share via further consolidation and/or price competition (mainly Copart on the automotive side).

The company could make poor acquisitions.