Rollins

End-market weaknesses, especially in Rollins' residential business, led to organic revenue weakness, with growth of only 5.7% in the second quarter. This led management to lower guidance for 2026 organic revenue growth to 6%-7% from 7%-8% previously. Shares are down 11% in early trading.

Why it matters: Weak customer leads in April and May drove poor performance and guidance reductions. However, Rollins saw lead growth in June and so far in July comparable with last year, and pricing and retention were unaffected in the quarter. Rollins' long history of success, solid trends exiting the second quarter, and strong underlying pricing and retention metrics lead us to keep our long-term forecasts in place, in line with Rollins' unchanged medium-term outlook. Rollins was unable to find a silver bullet that solved its digital lead issues. Instead, management says volume demand recovered in June, unrelated to its efforts. Until Rentokil reports, however, it will be hard to determine if this was industrywide or a Rollins-specific issue that signals larger problems.

The bottom line: We are lowering our fair value estimate to $46 from $50 for wide-moat Rollins, after updating our forecast to account for lower 2026 guidance. We left our long-term forecast unchanged. Shares are undervalued following today's price decrease. We are now in line with management's organic growth guidance, reducing our organic growth forecast from 7.0% to 6.2% in 2026. We lowered our margins in 2026, largely in line with results in the first half of the year, accounting for a second-half improvement. We anticipate margins to recover once organic revenue growth returns.

Key stats: Margins also struggled in the quarter, with some impact from higher employee and fuel costs. Lower revenue also flows down to incremental EBITDA margins, as its local route density and ability to spread fixed costs across a larger revenue base drive higher margins when adding new customers.

We are lowering our fair value estimate to $46 from $50, after accounting for weak 2026 demand, corresponding to a forward enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 25.4 times 2026 EBITDA of EUR 892 million.

We anticipate organic revenue growth of 6.2% over our forecast period, driven by Rollins' strong brand recognition and its multichannel sales strategy. Industry tailwinds, such as rising global temperatures, longer pest seasons, and increased attention to and investment in health and safety since the pandemic, will also supplement organic growth. We also forecast acquisition growth of 2.6% over our forecast period, in line with historical levels and guidance.

We forecast margins to increase to 20% in 2030 from 19.3% in 2025 as Rollins continues to improve its local route density and BOSS system, which saves costs on route optimization and back-end services. Adding a new customer to an existing route, a common occurrence for Rollins, allows the firm to spread its high fixed costs over a larger revenue base, reducing the prices it charges to break even and raising margins.

We assign Rollins a wide Morningstar Economic Moat Rating due to its cost advantage from scale in operations and route density, and its intangible assets from its largest brand, Orkin, and its suite of regional brands.

Pest control helps stop pests, including rodents, termites, bedbugs, cockroaches, ants, wasps, and more, for residential and commercial customers. Rollins and Rentokil dominate the pest control industry in the United States, holding 24% and 30% market share of the top 100 pest control firms, respectively. Rentokil complements organic growth with bolt-on acquisitions to maintain its scale advantage; it completed 32 in 2025.

Many costs are primarily incurred at the local level, so an extensive nationwide footprint alone does little to reduce them. To take advantage of scale in servicing, national pest-control companies must have regional scale in each market they operate in. There is a fine line between too few branches, which leads to lost sales, and too many branches, which leads to weaker margins. Evidence suggests that both firms walk this line more effectively than the average pest-control firm, matching their branch density to demand, allowing each technician to serve more clients, reducing unit costs per customer serviced relative to the industry average, thereby increasing revenue per location and revenue per employee.

Scale is also advantageous given the pest-control industry’s high fixed costs, which have accounted for 70%-80 % of total cash operating costs over the past three years. This gives both an advantage over smaller local peers, as they can spread high fixed costs—such as sales and marketing, training, and IT and back-end services—across a larger revenue base, thereby reducing the per-unit price.

Training may be the strongest example. Having skilled, knowledgeable technicians who can diagnose and eliminate pest sources is essential to success, as client experience is primarily technician-dependent. Furthermore, failure to eradicate on the first visit results in additional costs, including free return visits and damage claims. Rollins can invest more in training that smaller peers can’t replicate, as evidenced by its 27,000-square-foot training facility in Atlanta, Georgia, which includes a distance-learning and global-broadcast facility with simulated environments and classrooms. Technician acumen is a key component of its 91% retention rate, which is higher than industry targets of 82%-87% and also reduces costs.

Rollins’ network of local branches constitutes a formidable barrier to entry. A regional pest control firm would need time and capital to replicate Rollins’ footprint and achieve comparable unit costs. For example, a business would need to acquire the next eight largest North American pest-control firms to reach the size of Rollins. An existing firm with deep pockets and a national scale in a related area that tries to enter pest control would require substantial investment to build a brand rivaling Rollins.

Rollins’ strong reputation and high brand recognition are intangible assets that support its moat by driving new and recurring sales. Orkin is the most recognized pest control brand in the United States, with a multichannel approach to accelerate brand awareness, including paid media, social media, and SEO. Pest control brands will not be on consumers' minds every day. However, when pest control is needed, Orkin has demonstrated it capitalizes on its leading brand awareness, with 50% of new Orkin clients not considering a competitor when making a purchase. Rollins can do this at a low cost, with advertising at 3%-4% of revenue, lower than the 5% to 15% range in industries that rely heavily on advertising, such as consumer packaged goods and retail companies.

In addition to Orkin, Rollins has regional brands such as Clark in California, Northwest in the Southeastern United States, and Western and Waltham in the Northeast, all of which also have strong reputations. They reach customers through various channels, such as collaborating with homebuilders or conducting door-to-door outreach, allowing them a second chance to acquire new customers. Rollins continues to expand its brand portfolio through acquisitions, maintaining many acquired companies' brands, preserving local brand recognition, and increasing customer and employee retention while benefiting from greater scale.

Risk aversion is another factor driving consumers toward well-known brands, especially in the commercial segment. A business, especially in client-facing industries such as hospitality or food services, can be severely harmed by a pest outbreak. For example, a customer is unlikely to stay in a hotel with a recent bedbug infestation. The perception of downside risk associated with untested products makes brand recognition highly influential in purchasing decisions and helps maintain pricing power. Similarly, in residential settings, pests in a home can be socially embarrassing, creating a similar effect.

This risk aversion and need for ongoing service highlight the value of Rollins’ brand. With a strong brand and reputation, it can secure customers initially without sacrificing price. Orkin, Rollins' leading brand, recently switched to a CPI-plus pricing model and has seen little change in customer demand. While it is difficult to get a single price figure because pricing heavily depends on location and the exact service provided, Orkin is priced at or slightly above Rentokil/Terminix. Despite sharing similar scale advantages in their operations, Rollins' operating margins have been 5 percentage points higher than Rentokil's over the past decade. Once a customer is acquired, they have a high lifetime value, as approximately 80% of revenue is recurring.

Rollins should continue to expand its industry-leading margins thanks to the effectiveness of its BOSS system, which optimizes routes, contributes to growth, and manages costs.

Rollins can continue to grow from value-accretive acquisition, as half the industry is still made up of smaller businesses making less than $50 million in revenue.

Rollins' leading brand, Orkin, has differentiated itself from other pest control brands, converting strong awareness into sales.

Rollins completes 30-40 acquisitions a year. Greater competition for targets could pressure deal multiples and harm return on invested capital, while integration holds execution risk.

Family ownership exceeds 40%, increasing corporate governance risk as a single shareholder with nearly majority voting power poses a risk.

Rentokil’s 2022 acquisition of Terminix gives it a stronger brand in the US to compete with Rollins' leading brand, Orkin, potentially increasing the cost of customer acquisition.