Snap-on

Snap-on reported second-quarter sales of $1.2 billion (3% organic growth), and gross margin expanded 90 basis points to 51.4%, driven mainly by commercial and industrial. Earnings per share grew 5% to $4.96.

Why it matters: Performance was anemic in the auto repair-exposed tools and repair systems segments. Tools posted 3% organic growth but margin compressed 120 basis points to 22.6%, and repair systems had 0.7% organic growth but margin narrowed 160 basis points to 24.0% on weaker mix and ongoing investments. We are struggling to reconcile these dynamics with management’s commentary that this is a “golden age of vehicle repair.” Increasing complexity of vehicle repair and an aging car parc should support growth, yet growth is weak, and we are concerned margins have peaked. What management has done to boost margins (especially in tools) is impressive, but we question how much more it can achieve. Furthermore, the macro environment should seemingly have more structural tailwinds.

Between the lines: The company completed two acquisitions for $150 million: Diesel Laptops, a provider of repair and diagnostic solutions to heavy-duty trucks and off-highway vehicles, and Hi-Force Hydraulic Tools, which offers various tools to critical industries. These acquisitions expand Snap-on’s capabilities outside of its legacy auto repair markets. While this might be strategically sound, it could also be a signal that management feels it needs to diversify the portfolio. In unambiguously positive news, the commercial and industrial business posted 11% organic growth and 330 basis points of operating margin expansion to 16.8%. There may be further margin upside as that business scales.

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Snap-on to $343 per share from $335, reflecting an improving outlook in commercial and industrial but more subdued margins in repair systems. The shares seem expensive at 20 times our 2026 EPS estimate.

Our $343 fair value estimate equates to about 17 times our 2026 earnings estimate.

Management provides minimal financial guidance to the analyst community, so forecasting is somewhat more challenging. 2025 was relatively weak for Snap-on due to tariff-related and other economic uncertainty. However, the company is clearly gaining traction with its software and diagnostic solutions and seeing green shoots of recovery in its tools businesses.

The automotive-focused tools businesses in Snap-on’s portfolio are generally more resilient. For the remainder of our forecast horizon, we anticipate 4% average annual growth for the Snap-on tools group, consistent with management’s high-level guidance of GDP-plus growth. We anticipate greater potential for the other businesses. We forecast 5% average annual growth for commercial and industrial, which assumes greater potential penetration but also somewhat constrained given that segment’s intrinsically higher cyclicality. We forecast 6% average annual growth for repair systems and information, which we believe to be a structural beneficiary of the technological innovations occurring in the automotive industry.

We anticipate 300 basis points of total margin expansion in the tools business over our forecast horizon as the company continues to benefit from innovation and operational excellence. These margins are impressive for a tools business. We have increased our forecast to approximately 300 basis points of margin expansion for commercial and industrial, as that business demonstrates it is gaining critical mass. Given the historical performance of that segment and the extreme fragmentation of the markets it serves, we are comfortable with this view. We have tempered our 2026 margin outlook in repair systems and information on sluggish near-term performance, but we forecast that the business can continue modest margin expansion from its 2025 peak as it realizes ongoing favorable mix shifts from increasing diagnostic and software sales. However, we think uncertainty around this has increased.

Our stage two forecast period incorporates an estimated investment rate of 15% and earnings before interest growth rate of 5% with perpetual growth of 3%. A 9.0% weighted average cost of capital derives from a market-average cost of equity and the firm’s current capital structure.

We assign Snap-on a Narrow Morningstar Economic Moat Rating due to intangible assets and switching costs.

Snap-on derives a narrow moat from intangible assets. Its premium tools draw strong brand loyalty from repair professionals because they are more durable and ergonomic. This helps customers make repairs faster, boosting their productivity. The importance of good ergonomics cannot be overstated. The grip on Snap-on tools lets technicians work more comfortably in tight spaces and at difficult angles, with a real impact in the shop. As vehicle designs become more complex, technicians must be able to access problem areas. Most technicians purchase tools at their own expense, making it important for them to buy high-performing tools built for daily use. The average technician spends as much as $40,000 on tools over a career. Cheaper alternatives are not as durable and break more frequently, posing safety and efficiency risks.

The product quality/brand argument carries over to the commercial and industrial business and the repair systems and information segment. The repair systems and information business also benefits from increased sales of diagnostic software to independent shop owners and larger auto dealers who deal with a larger scale of complicated repairs. That business is very similar to Snap-on tools; it serves a more institutionalized customer base.

We believe Snap-on has also created a significant intangible asset via its franchisee-led direct selling model. Snap-on “franchisees” purchase a van and inventory and travel around to resell Snap-on tools to technicians at independent shops in their communities. From a selling standpoint, this offers significant value to the customer. The customer can touch and experience the tools, which are critical to their livelihood, staving off e-commerce risk. Second, customers build relationships with the franchisee, who is often a “friend” and makes a consultative sale. The frequency of contact (thousands of calls across thousands of accounts) ensures technicians receive support and replacements, maximizing uptime. The personal connection with the Snap-on franchisee is moatworthy. Finally, we believe the financing offered by both the franchisee and Snap-on is a major source of competitive advantage. Customers finance their purchases and make weekly payments to the franchisee. They don’t think about the purchase in terms of interest rates. A marquee example is the purchase of an $8,000 tool storage bench, which is often financed over four years and results in a modest incremental weekly expense for the customer (such as $40). Tool storage is one of the most important purchases for auto repair workers. While most customers are probably subprime credits, the portfolio behaves more like prime because the collateral is essential to the technician’s work, so defaults of around 3% are benign.

Snap-on’s results show customers are willing to pay higher prices for better quality products with strong customer support and financing options. The brand is familiar and well respected. According to management, customers are willing to pay 2-3 times more for Snap-on’s tools. We think Snap-on’s tools reduce the total cost of ownership, as lower breakage and better support drive higher throughput.

Snap-On also realizes an economic moat via switching costs. Snap-on’s products are mission-critical to its users. Technicians are responsible for providing their own tools to complete their work. Maintaining high uptime is key. Snap-on products enable workers to repair machines that are vital to its customers’ operations or heavily regulated (aerospace, mining, and so forth). There is a high cost of failure if repairs are not successful. Snap-on consistently improves the strength and prevision of its products. Vehicles/machines are increasingly manufactured with tighter tolerances (screws/bolts are wound tighter), requiring tools with more strength. Beyond physical tools, Snap-on offers a variety of software solutions that help technicians improve their productivity via superior diagnostics and digital asset management. As machines become more complex, technology becomes an important tool in completing work. This is evidenced through the company’s consistently improving operating margins, especially in the repair systems and information segment.

We believe Snap-on will maintain its competitive advantage, even as vehicle automation and electric vehicle adoption increase. The shift to EVs will likely mean fewer auto parts in new models and different types of repair work, but demand for tools will persist. Repair work will likely be more challenging from a safety perspective, given the high-voltage nature of EVs. Snap-on’s insulating tools can help technicians complete their work safely. We also think repair work will shift from engines to batteries, sensors, wiring, and advanced driver assistance systems. This will not only lead to new tools being developed but will also result in increased demand for diagnostic equipment. Increasing vehicle complexity makes it more difficult for auto technicians to troubleshoot issues without diagnostic products. Snap-on’s diagnostic products scan error codes and present possible fixes based on a massive database of repair data.

Snap-on’s finance arm primarily provides retail financing for customers through its franchisee network (about 80% of receivables). Franchisee customers utilize financing to purchase products. About 20% of receivables are for franchisees themselves for items like their vans and working capital. The financial services business increases the likelihood of product sales while maintaining low default risk. Snap-on knows its customer base and underwrites loans effectively. Allowance for credit losses has historically been around 3%-4% of finance receivables. The financing offered to and by Snap-on’s franchisees is a vital component of the economic moat.

Snap-on will expand its addressable market in other industrial tooling.

As the company increases its software solutions, customer relationships will deepen and margins will expand.

Snap-on can leverage its strong relationship with auto OEMs to develop premium tools for EV-related maintenance and repair.

If the gap in tool quality between Snap-on and its peers narrows, the company's pricing power would erode.

The company could make poor acquisitions in the face of deteriorating organic growth opportunities.

The shift to EVs could entice both peers and new entrants to develop more effective diagnostic products for vehicles, surpassing Snap-on.