Gavin Thorne has invested in U.S. equities for six years and previously worked at a large publicly listed internet company. On StockVane he writes single-stock analysis with an income slant, often built around cash-secured puts on businesses he can explain in a sentence. His articles are analysis and opinion, not personalized advice — see StockVane's Editorial Standards and Disclaimer.
Oracle’s contracted cloud backlog has grown to several hundred billion dollars and re-rated the stock. Converting it requires a huge capital build on a compressed timeline, funded by debt, with real customer concentration.
US power demand is rising again after two flat decades, and NextEra pairs a growing Florida utility with the world’s largest renewables developer. The catch is a debt-funded balance sheet that makes the stock sensitive…
ASML holds a near-monopoly on the machines that make advanced chips, but the stock trades on lumpy quarterly bookings that swing by billions. The forecast is clear over a decade and close to untimeable over…
After the 2020 reset, Exxon rebuilt around spending discipline and cash returns. The breakeven oil price to cover capex plus the dividend has fallen toward the high thirties, which changes how the stock behaves in…
Costco’s business is excellent and its valuation is the outlier. Earnings compound near 10 percent a year, but at 50 times earnings a decade of that is mostly priced. The forecast hinges almost entirely on…
Real-time bank transfers, stablecoins, and interchange regulation are all real threats to Visa’s network. The forecast is that they chip at the edges slowly while Visa keeps compounding earnings in the low double digits.
JPMorgan’s return on tangible equity is running well above its own through-cycle target, and the stock trades at a premium multiple to boot. The forecast: 2026 earnings could be flat to down as rate cuts…
Every year the estimate for the 2030 obesity drug market gets revised higher, now near 130 billion dollars. Eli Lilly’s forecast rests on tirzepatide share plus two pipeline drugs, orforglipron and retatrutide, and a huge…
Alphabet trades near 19 times forward earnings while its peers sit far higher. The discount reflects a real fear about AI answers eroding search. The forecast question is whether search revenue can keep growing at…
Microsoft’s capital spending has roughly quadrupled in three years. The forecast that matters is whether Azure AI revenue and Copilot renewals grow fast enough to offset the depreciation that hits the income statement in fiscal…