Caterpillar’s Rally Has Outrun Its Margins
Caterpillar is up about 78% from its 52-week low while operating margin fell from 20.2% to 16.5%. The quant score is an A. But at nearly 35 times trailing earnings, the market has already paid…
Gavin Thorne
Gavin Thorne has invested in U.S. equities for six years and previously worked at a large publicly listed internet company. On StockVane he writes single-stock analysis with an income slant, often built around cash-secured puts on businesses he can explain in a sentence. His articles are analysis and opinion, not personalized advice — see StockVane's Editorial Standards and Disclaimer.
UnitedHealth’s Margin Crisis: Is the Worst Over?
UnitedHealth’s operating margin hit 0.3% in the December 2025 quarter, then rebounded to 8.0% and 7.1%. Is the worst over? The stock, at 18.9 times forward earnings has already answered yes, and we check the…
Oracle’s Backlog Says the Next Three Years Are Booked. The Stock Says Prove It.
Oracle spent $55.7 billion on capex in fiscal 2026 against $32.0 billion of operating cash, a $23.7 billion gap. Our data holds no backlog figure, only the bill for delivering one, and debt has covered…
NextEra: The Cleanest Way to Own the Electricity Demand Boom, With One Catch
NextEra is up 18.7% in a year, yet 16.6% below its high, and its EPS is 8% lower than in FY2023. We test the cleanest-demand-play claim against five power-sector peers, name the one catch, and…
ASML: The Best Business in Semiconductors, and the Hardest to Time
ASML fell 22% in 29 days this summer, from $1,986.87 to $1,550.69, while quarterly revenue grew 21% year over year. We measure the swings, the 53 times earnings price, and which revenue print would show…
Exxon’s Forecast Isn’t About the Oil Price Anymore. It’s About Discipline.
Exxon’s revenue fell 19% and net income 48% from 2022 to 2025, so oil still matters. The discipline claim is tested by cash: $37.5B returned in 2025 against $23.6B of free cash flow. Here is…
Costco at 50 Times Earnings: Paying a Software Multiple for a Box of Groceries
$10,000 in Costco at $895 earns about $222 a year, a 2.2% earnings yield at 45 times trailing EPS. What return does the stock need from growth and a 30x to 50x exit multiple over…
Visa Is a Toll Road. The Forecast Question Is Who Builds the Bypass.
Visa earns about $73 million of operating income every day, and revenue still grows 11% a year. Instant payments and stablecoins are real bypasses, but the quarterly numbers, and a 31 P/E, say the toll…
JPMorgan Sits Just Below Its Record High: What You’re Betting On at 15 Times Earnings
JPMorgan set its record close of $365.18 on August 12 and now sits 4.6% below it, at 15 times earnings. It looks fairly priced against banks, yet 2.7 times book is far above its own…
Eli Lilly and the Obesity Market: Sizing a Forecast That Keeps Getting Bigger
Lilly’s quarterly revenue now annualizes to $92B, 3.2x fiscal 2022, while its P/E sits at 38.7 against a five-year average of 67.5. We work backwards from the $1,153 price to the revenue needed to justify…
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