The Fed Hiked on September 16. The Trade Isn’t the Hike.
I wrote that the Fed would cut on September 16. It did not: a Sept. 17 headline reads ‘first hike in 3 years.’ The framework held, and SPY sits 2.0% below its high while small…
Macro & Markets
How I Actually Analyze Money Flowing Into and Out of the US Stock Market
The ten largest US stocks rose 4.5% in 20 days while the median stock fell 2.5%. My four-signal checklist (order flow, breadth, concentration, put/call) run on our own data for September 18, 2026, and what…
Which Tech Stocks Are Worth Buying Cautiously in Q4 2026
Amazon spent 92% of its operating cash flow on equipment last year and Oracle spent 174%. That gap decides which tech stocks are worth buying carefully in Q4. Here is who covers the AI bill,…
Top 5 Stocks to Buy for September 2026: A Win-Rate-First Portfolio
Walmart fell 9.2% on August 20, the worst day any name on our September win-rate list has had in a year. We reran the list against the data: which of the four measurable stocks held…
The AI Capex Bubble: Is This 1999 Again?
Big Tech plans about $725 billion of AI capex in 2026, and cash flow is starting to show the strain. Here is what the statements say, why Nvidia’s receivables jumped 55% in a quarter, and…
Iran-Israel War and Stocks: What August 2026 Could Bring
The Iran war is five months old and Brent just touched $100 again. History says stocks usually absorb shocks in weeks. Here is what this conflict has done to the market so far, why oil…
US Stock Market Weekly Recap: Semiconductor Sell-Off, Iran Tensions, and What Next Week’s Fed Testimony Means
The S&P 500 fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.9% as chips slipped into a bear market. Oil, a cooler CPI, IBM’s warning and a Chinese AI model each pulled a different way. Here is what…
Is the S&P 500 Overvalued in 2026?
The Shiller CAPE is near 41, second only to 1999. Here is what the number measures, why it may exaggerate the risk, what our own data shows about a narrow group of 50 expensive stocks,…
The Fed Is Stuck, Inflation Won’t Die, and Your Stock Portfolio Is Caught in the Middle
The Fed raised rates 12 to 0 on September 16 and is still stuck: core PCE runs at 3.3%, oil sits in the $90s and the 10-year yield is near 4.8%. Here is what the…
How to Use IBKR’s Advanced Features to Read Stock Price Movements
IBKR moved -1.0% on its last earnings day; AMD moved -7.0% on its own. Same platform, different risk. Here are the four TWS screens, valuation, targets, historical swing, and quant grade, that actually help you…