ASML holds a near-monopoly on the machines that make advanced chips, but the stock trades on lumpy quarterly bookings that swing by billions. The forecast is clear over a decade and close to untimeable over…
The AI trade has been a bet on one company’s chips. The real constraint has moved to the power grid: multi-year interconnection queues, sold-out turbines, and hyperscalers contracting for 2028 electricity. Here is how the…
Every conversation I have with readers about chip stocks eventually turns into a conversation about one company, and I understand why. But Nvidia’s dominance is also exactly why I think the more interesting risk-reward in…
Four days before Baidu reported, I told readers I’d sold a cash-secured put on the stock. The reasoning was in my August note: the valuation already priced in a lot of bad news, the AI…
I’ve made three mistakes with AMD, and each one taught me something about how I read this company. The first was 2019. I thought the EPYC server story was overhyped and that enterprise IT was…
I bought my first tranche of Baidu back when everyone still called it “the Google of China” as a lazy elevator pitch, and I want to open with an admission that still stings a little:…
I’ve sat through enough “chips got smoked” weeks over fifteen years to know the drill by now: something scares the semiconductor trade, headlines get dramatic, and half of Twitter starts asking if the AI bubble…
There is a number floating around Wall Street right now that has the quality of a fever dream. Seven hundred billion dollars. That is the combined capital expenditure that Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle…
Updated 8:42 AM ET — NVDA +6.8% pre-market | $238.14 The free cash flow number stopped me cold. Not the revenue. Not the guidance. Not even Jensen Huang’s closing line about “the largest infrastructure expansion…
A 2026 price forecast for Nvidia, covering how hyperscaler AI capex, GPU demand, and the company’s own earnings momentum are shaping where the stock goes from here.